Stats Perform‘s artificial intelligence World Cup prediction model has become quite popular among die-hard football fans. The BBC covered the development of the model and predictions of a winner.

In order to get a more holistic view of who will win the 2022 World Cup, the prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome – win, draw or loss – using betting market odds and Stats Perform’s team rankings.

The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model then takes into account the strength of the opponent and the difficulty of their path to the final, using match outcome probabilities taking into account the composition of the groups and the distribution of places in the knockout stages.

According to the model, England has a 60% chance of topping the group and the fifth highest chance of winning the tournament overall (9%). Wales’ match with the USA looks key to their chances of getting out of Group B. Their chances of progressing to the last 16 are 41%, while the USA’s are slightly higher at 45%. The other countries which have chances to win according to the model are France, Brazil and Argentina.


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